London house prices 'set to stall in 2017'

The increase in house prices in London has slowed to its weakest pace in almost four years, according to the latest survey of values in 20 cities across the UK by property analysts Hometrack.

According to a Hometrack report, growth in London was 6.4 per cent in January – the lowest annual rate since June 2013 – with rises predicted to be negligible for the remainder of 2017. However, Hometrack said that house prices in London were now 85 per cent higher than they were in 2009, commanding an average of £486,600.Coinciding with the publication of the analysis was a report from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) showing that loans to home movers in London last year fell to their lowest levels in 25 years.The Hometrack report showed that property values in the likes of Liverpool, Birmingham and Manchester were now rising quicker than in the capital, albeit from a much lower price base.

Highest price growth in Bristol

Bristol remained the city with the strongest house price growth, with an annual increase of 9.5 per cent recorded in January, followed by 9.2 per cent in Oxford. Manchester, with an 8.3 per cent increase, occupied third place on the list. Once again, the UK's 'oil capital' of Aberdeen was bottom of the list, seeing a decrease of 3.7 per cent in prices.Richard Donnell, Hometrack director, said, "Growth in London has been superseded by large regional cities such as Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham. When you consider that house prices in London are 85 per cent higher than they were in 2009, it is not surprising that the pace of increases is slowing toward a standstill as very high house price increases mean affordability is stretched."The CML figures showed that 32,400 loans were granted to London home movers last year, the lowest total since 1991 and 10 per cent lower than in 2015. Movers in the capital – who had an average age of 37 – borrowed £335,400 on average in the final quarter of last year.

Downward trend

Paul Smee, CML director-general, said, "Home mover activity in particular continues a downward trend, with the fewest loans since 1991."Persisting supply and affordability issues appear to be exerting an ongoing restraint on growth, meaning there is some uncertainty around how the market will perform going into 2017. By contrast, re-mortgage activity appears to be experiencing a resurgence."Competitive mortgage rates aided by low interest rates have sparked re-mortgage levels not seen in the capital since 2008."Meanwhile, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that first-time buyers across England and Wales needed more than £23,000 to cover deposits, legal fees and moving costs. In London, the figure rose to £55,000 along with an income of almost £60,000.Home 20 cities average prices and annual increases recorded in January:
  1. Bristol, £263,200, 9.5 per cent
  2. Oxford, £430,200, 9.2 per cent
  3. Manchester, £150,600, 8.3 per cent
  4. Southampton, £223,200, 8 per cent
  5. Birmingham, £147,400, 7.4 per cent
  6. Liverpool, £116,200, 7.1 per cent
  7. Bournemouth, £275,600, 6.6 per cent
  8. London, £486,600, 6.4 per cent
  9. Portsmouth, £221,100, 6.4 per cent
  10. Leicester, £160,500, 6 per cent
  11. Glasgow, £115,200, 5.7 per cent
  12. Leeds, £154,700, 5.5 per cent
  13. Nottingham, £140,300, 5.4 per cent
  14. Cardiff, £192,900, 5 per cent
  15. Sheffield, £128,500, 4 per cent
  16. Edinburgh, £200,700, 3.7 per cent
  17. Newcastle, £123,900, 3.5 per cent
  18. Belfast, £126,100, 2.8 per cent
  19. Cambridge, £418,100, 2.2 per cent
  20. Aberdeen, £186,200, minus 3.7 per cent

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