Treasury forecasts economic damage likely from Brexit
New long-term UK Treasury forecasts on May's Brexit deal estimate increases in government borrowing and reductions to GDP growth with figures worse under a no-deal scenario.
Analysis disregarded by May's political opponents
However, the analysis appeared to have little impact on political opponents to the withdrawal agreement - including many Conservative MPs - who appear ready to reject it in a parliamentary vote now set for December 11.David Davis, a Conservative MP who resigned as Brexit Secretary in the summer, described the analysis as a "propaganda onslaught", adding, "Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong."Although the Treasury document did not put a cash figure on the potential impact on the economy of Brexit, economists estimate that the 3.9 per cent reduction equated to a GDP reduction of about £100 billion a year by 2033. The analysis also found that government borrowing could be forced up by as much as £119 billion by 2035 if the UK quit the EU without a deal and up to £26.6 billion under Mrs May's plans.But answering questions in the House of Commons on Wednesday afternoon, Mrs May claimed the UK would be "better off" under her Brexit deal. "Our deal is the best deal available for jobs and our economy, that allows us to honour the referendum and realise the opportunities of Brexit," she said."This analysis does not show that we will be poorer in the future than we are today - no, it doesn't. It shows we will be better off with this deal."But Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said it was easy for Mrs May to describe her deal as the best one because it was the only deal on the table. "The government's economic forecasts published today are actually meaningless because there's no actual deal to model, just a 26-page wish-list," he said, referring to the outline position paper for a future UK-EU trade deal to come into effect when the transition period ends, probably in December 2020.- Study finds lack of HR planning in workforce upskilling
- Crown World Mobility asked: How does Europe feel about Brexit?
- Europe stands firm against Brexit deal revision
Business backing for May's deal
Nevertheless, the withdrawal agreement has received backing from many businesses, with both global chemicals company Ineos and British Aerospace voicing their support on Wednesday while the British car industry warned a 'no deal' exit would prove "disastrous".The Confederation of British Industry reacted to the economic analysis by saying it showed the damage a no-deal Brexit would have on the economy.Rain Newton-Smith, the organisation's chief economist, said: "These forecasts paint a bleak picture over the long-term of a no deal Brexit or a Canada-style deal."It surely puts to bed some of the more far-fetched ideas that a hard-landing Brexit will not seriously hurt the economy."This is about real people's lives and jobs in the years ahead and it's clear to business that while the government's deal is not perfect, it certainly fits the bill in reducing short-term uncertainty and opens up a route to a decent trade deal in the future."Follow the link for official communication explaining the UK Government's Brexit Deal.
Visit our Brexit pages for all the latest Brexit news.
Relocate’s new Global Mobility Toolkit provides free information, practical advice and support for HR, global mobility managers and global teams operating overseas.Access hundreds of global services and suppliers in our Online DirectorySubscribe to Relocate Extra, our monthly newsletter, to get all of the international assignments and global mobility news.
©2024 Re:locate magazine, published by Profile Locations, Spray Hill, Hastings Road, Lamberhurst, Kent TN3 8JB. All rights reserved. This publication (or any part thereof) may not be reproduced in any form without the prior written permission of Profile Locations. Profile Locations accepts no liability for the accuracy of the contents or any opinions expressed herein.