This article is taken from the Autumn 2024 issue of

Think Global People magazine

Click on the cover to access the digital edition.View your copy of the Autumn 2024 issue of Think Global People magazine.

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Elections are either due to take place, are currently taking place, or have already taken place in 60 countries, including the EU. Countries where election fever has hit or is due to hit include Taiwan, Pakistan and Mozambique, in addition to those generating headlines around the world in Russia, South Africa, India, France, the United States and, of course, the UK.Every election has the potential to impact global mobility as it brings changes in government and policy.

Immigration in the land of the free

Immigration is a key battleground between the Democratic and Republican parties in the US election, with domestic and international policies set for change following the election results.The Republican Party claims immigration is one of the biggest issues facing the country. Donald Trump as the Republican candidate is already weaponising it as he did in his first term in office with the pledge of a wall between the US and Mexico’s border. He is also openly criticising the ‘open border’ stance of current president Joe Biden and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris.A Republican victory may result in a tougher approach to immigration in general, including stricter rules for those who want to enter the US. It is also likely such a presidency would bring another wave of ‘exclusions’ due to nationality, as with the Trump administration during the Covid-19 pandemic. Virus or not, visa processing would likely be more stringent and possibly take longer.Similar to what we are witnessing in countries like Sweden, it is also a possibility that a right-leaning government would follow the same trend of privileging higher-skilled migrants with high salaries and spending power over fruit pickers, nurses and construction workers, despite them being urgently needed in virtually every country.The Mexican border will once again be a pawn in the struggle between the two parties. However, both may find common ground in wanting to deny asylum to those who cross the Mexican border illegally. How the Republican and Democratic parties would enforce it may differ, with the latter seemingly more focused on legal migration as opposed to curbing illegal immigration.For global mobility managers wanting to plan their US-based workforce in the immediate future, this means understanding that the H-1B visa programme will face high demand, with quotas filled by a lottery rather than merit. Alternatively, and without the luck of a draw, other visas may apply to companies wanting to set up a business in the US – or those that already have entities or branches there – with visas like the E or L-type, to mention some.

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Read related articles

• Will November’s election make US trade deals more likely?
• Global mobility policies: Current trends
• Global mobility supply and demand: What is happening in the corporate world

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Tales from around the world

In the UK, the former government looked at promoting a higher degree of scrutiny for people wanting to move to the country to live and work when staff shortages in the hospitality, healthcare and many other sectors were already an issue. Shortages had already been exacerbated by Brexit, where any citizen of the European Union – once free to travel and work in the UK, as well as other countries – was now faced with the burden of securing a work permit. With the shift this July to a Labour government after 14 years of a Conservative-led government, the new Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Sir Keir Starmer, is seemingly aiming to bring his country back into the EU. Only time will tell.Heading to India, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) implemented by the governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has changed a 64-year-old Indian citizenship law. This law allows naturalisation for people of minorities persecuted on religious grounds in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan who moved to India before December 31 2024 to seek Indian citizenship. However, this would exclude all people of the Muslim faith.In South Africa, the former majority government, African National Congress (ANC), entered into a coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) after they won only 40% of seats in the country’s assembly, down from 58% in the previous election. The Department of Home Affairs (DHA) released a final white paper on citizenship, immigration and refugee protection in April 2024. This completely overhauled the migration system in the country, as existing acts were repealed and streamlined into a singular law. Similarly, South Africa’s visa policy is also set to be overhauled in a simplification exercise.  

Different country, same focus

Regulatory change is expected to sweep the world following elections, with, of course, a focus on immigration. Provisions are set to be made that will improve ‘cap gaps’ during transitions. On the flipside, there could be stricter definitions of ‘speciality occupations’.Political rhetoric in the run-up to elections will also have a bearing on whether or not people want to move to countries going to the polls or decide to remain where they are. One beacon of hope is for people who are skilled in AI. Some countries are allowing easier permit applications for those ticking this particular box. HR Online recently reported that in Hong Kong, for example, people with AI skills could attract a 28% pay rise as AI skills gaps loom.

Global mobility’s role in managing uncertainty

As we await the outcomes of each of this year’s elections, contingency planning is essential. Exact changes are hard to predict, but mobility teams can prepare by analysing their global workforce, identifying areas of risk and evaluating critical or expiring causes. They should also consider speeding up hire dates or renewal timelines for those employees who could be at risk. Continual open and honest communication with these team members is essential.More than ever in 2024, mobility professionals must remain agile and adaptable to rapid change in a country’s immigration policies to ensure the smooth movement of talent across borders.

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